Your Average Order Volume Might Be Hiding the Real Story

Five thousand orders a month sounds wonderfully predictable, but averages have a habit of making complicated businesses look simple.

Maybe January is quiet, spring brings a major product launch, and summer is when demand really takes off. Then a promotion performs better than expected, inventory arrives earlier than usual, or a retailer places an order that looks nothing like the ecommerce orders moving through the building every day. By the end of the year, the monthly average might still be 5,000 orders, but very few months actually looked average.

For a 3PL, that difference matters.

Harrison Smith, Director of Commercial Revenue at Barrett Distribution Centers, spends much of his time looking at the numbers behind a brand and understanding what those numbers actually say about the operation. With roughly 20 years of experience in the 3PL industry, Harrison has learned that order volume alone rarely tells the entire story.

“When I work with brands, I wanna understand everything about the business.”

That means looking beyond the average and finding the rhythm underneath it.

Averages Can Make Peaks Disappear

Imagine two brands that each ship 60,000 orders annually. On paper, both average 5,000 orders per month, so their fulfillment needs might initially appear similar.

Look closer, and they could be completely different businesses.

One might consistently ship around 5,000 orders every month, while another moves a significant portion of its annual volume during a handful of promotions or seasonal peaks. The total is the same, but the way inventory, people, space, and orders move through the warehouse is not.

That is why Harrison looks at more than annual totals when learning about a prospective customer.

“It’s looking at yearly trends, looking at within the year, what does that look like? Do you have those peaks?”

Those peaks tell a 3PL when the business changes pace. They also help reveal what has to happen before demand arrives, because a busy sales month does not begin when the first customer places an order. Inventory may need to arrive weeks or months earlier, warehouse space needs to be available, and the operation needs enough time to receive and prepare that product.

Your Busiest Month Might Not Be December

Peak season is often treated as another name for the holidays, but every brand has its own calendar.

A swimwear company may experience its most important stretch during warmer months. An apparel brand might revolve around seasonal collections and launches. Another business may see dramatic spikes around promotions, retailer orders, or events that have nothing to do with the traditional holiday rush.

Harrison brings up exactly that distinction when talking with brands.

“When do you need to bring your inventory in to service that holiday peak, or is it a summer peak because you sell swimsuits or whatever it might be?”

That question sounds simple, yet the answer can influence much more than outbound order volume. If a large amount of inventory arrives ahead of a peak, the warehouse needs somewhere to put it. If demand suddenly accelerates, more handling work follows. If the brand operates across several sales channels, the profile can become even more nuanced.

Understanding when those moments happen gives the 3PL a much clearer picture of the business it is preparing to support.

The Story Is Usually in the Details

Order history becomes far more useful when it has context.

What caused last year's spike? Was it expected? Is it likely to happen again? Did a promotion create the increase, or did a new sales channel change the business permanently? When does inventory normally arrive ahead of those periods? Are there months when products sit longer before demand catches up?

At Barrett, those conversations are part of understanding the operation before making assumptions about it. Harrison is admittedly a “data nerd,” but his interest in the numbers is ultimately about making the information useful.

“The better you understand the data, the better the quote we can offer.”

When a brand provides only a partial picture, a 3PL has to fill in the blanks. Harrison explains that those assumptions tend to be conservative because the provider does not want to promise an operation that the available information cannot support. More complete data allows the conversation to become more precise.

As Harrison puts it,

“the better the data, the better our pricing.”

Give Your 3PL the Real Version of Your Business

There is nothing wrong with knowing your average monthly order volume. It is a useful number.

It just should not be the end of the conversation.

Show your 3PL the unusually busy months and the surprisingly quiet ones. Talk about the promotion that changed everything for a week. Explain when inventory begins arriving before your biggest selling season and whether a retailer order can suddenly change the shape of the month. If your business is seasonal, say so. If it is unpredictable, that is useful information too.

Your business is constantly moving, and the numbers should tell that story. When your 3PL understands the peaks, patterns, and changes behind the average, they can prepare for the business you actually have, not the one a spreadsheet suggests.

Looking for a 3PL that takes the time to understand your business?

Tell us where you are today, where you want to go, and what you need from your fulfillment partner.

Start a conversation with Barrett Distribution Centers.