October Is Here. Do You Know Where Your Holiday Inventory Is?
October has a way of making the holidays feel suddenly close.
Marketing calendars are filling up. Promotions are taking shape. Black Friday and Cyber Monday plans have moved from ideas to actual deadlines, and forecasts are being revisited as brands get a clearer picture of what the final months of the year could bring.
Meanwhile, somewhere in the supply chain, holiday inventory is moving too.
Some of it may already be sitting in a fulfillment center. Some may be arriving this week. Other products could still be in transit, waiting to be received, or scheduled to arrive much closer to the moment customers begin looking for them.
Knowing how much inventory you purchased is one thing. Knowing where it is, when it will arrive, and whether it will be ready when demand arrives is another.
Peak Season Starts Before the Orders Do
Holiday fulfillment conversations naturally focus on outbound orders.
Those questions matter, but they begin in the middle of the story.
Before an order can leave a fulfillment center, inventory has to get there. It needs to be received, accounted for, stored, and ready to move when customers start buying. During a busy season, that incoming flow of product can be just as important as what is heading out the door.
Harrison Smith, Director of Commercial Revenue at Barrett Distribution Centers, looks closely at those patterns when learning about a brand. With roughly 20 years in the 3PL industry, he knows that understanding peak is about more than identifying the busiest sales month.
As Harrison puts it,
“When do you need to bring your inventory in to service that holiday peak, or is it a summer peak because you sell swimsuits or whatever it might be?”
The question is simple, but it changes the conversation. If November is your busiest month, what needs to happen in October? And what needed to happen before that?
Where Is Your Inventory Right Now?
By October, brands should have more than a holiday sales forecast. They should have a clear picture of the inventory expected to support it.
That means understanding what has already arrived, what is still on the way, and whether any incoming products could create pressure as holiday activity increases.
This is where averages can become misleading. A brand might know its typical monthly inventory or order volume, but peak rarely behaves like a typical month.
Harrison emphasizes the importance of looking deeper into the patterns behind the numbers.
“It’s looking at yearly trends, looking at within the year, what does that look like? Do you have those peaks?”
For holiday planning, those peaks can happen on both sides of the warehouse. Orders may increase just as large amounts of inventory arrive. Suddenly, the operation is balancing receiving, storage, picking, packing, and shipping during the same critical stretch.
Visibility helps everyone understand what is coming before the building gets busy.
Give Your 3PL the Full Picture
Your 3PL cannot prepare for information it does not have.
If a large inventory shipment has moved later than originally expected, communicate it. If a promotion is likely to concentrate demand around certain products, share that information. If this year's assortment or sales strategy looks substantially different from last year's, make sure your fulfillment team knows that too.
Harrison describes himself as a “data nerd,” and his approach is rooted in understanding as much of the business as possible.
“When I work with brands, I wanna understand everything about the business.”
That does not mean brands need to predict every holiday order perfectly. Forecasts change. Promotions surprise people. Products sell differently than expected. The goal is not perfect foresight. It is giving the people responsible for fulfillment enough information to make thoughtful decisions as conditions change.
At Barrett, those conversations help our teams understand the rhythm behind a customer's business rather than viewing peak as one large number on a forecast.
October Is a Good Time to Ask Better Questions
Instead of asking only whether your 3PL is ready for holiday volume, October is a good time to look more closely at the inventory supporting that volume.
Are there unusual inbound shipments your fulfillment team should know about?
Those conversations may not be the most exciting part of holiday planning, especially compared with campaigns, product launches, and sales goals. Still, they help create the conditions for all of those plans to work.
Because by the time a customer clicks buy, a surprising amount of the work behind that order should already be finished.
Your holiday inventory should not simply be on its way.
You should know where it is, when it is arriving, and what happens next.
Looking for a 3PL that takes the time to understand your business?
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